PHOENIX Project/ Türkiye Policy Report N.1 | 2025

Climate Change and Migration Nexus in Türkiye: Trends, Legal Frameworks, and Policy Challenges

by N. Ela Gokalp-Aras[1]

Overview

Türkiye’s exposure to climate change impacts, including rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, floods, droughts, and extreme weather events, continues to intersect with the complex migration dynamics. As both a destination, source, and transit country, Türkiye now also increasingly faces internal climate-induced mobility, particularly in agriculture-dependent and ecologically vulnerable regions. The interrelationship between environmental degradation, rural-urban migration, and international migration patterns shows that there is a need to focus on the climate change and migration nexus in Türkiye.

Türkiye’s current legal and policy frameworks do not formally acknowledge the role of climate change in shaping migration dynamics, despite empirical evidence showing that environmental and climate-related stressors are increasingly influencing both internal and international migration. In Türkiye, internal migration driven by environmental stress is increasingly evident in regions such as the Konya Basin, Southeastern Anatolia, and the Eastern Black Sea. These areas have experienced rising out-migration due to chronic droughts, land degradation, and flooding. For instance, the Konya Plain has faced intensified droughts and desertification, leading to significant agricultural challenges and prompting farmers to migrate to urban centres. Similarly, Southeastern Anatolia has been affected by land degradation and water scarcity, which exacerbate socio-economic vulnerabilities and contribute to migration patterns. The Eastern Black Sea region has also experienced an increase in flooding events, which have impacted livelihoods and led to population displacement.[2] These stressors push rural populations toward major cities, increasing urban fragility and deepening existing inequalities. The movement of migrants into these urban areas has created problems regarding infrastructure and services, highlighting the need for integrated policies to address both environmental challenges in rural regions and the capacity of urban centres to accommodate new arrivals as part of internal migration. However, internal climate mobility is not formally categorised, despite studies showing a rising trend in displacement linked to declining agricultural productivity, water scarcity, and increased disaster exposure.[3] Nevertheless, internal displacement linked to climate stressors is not defined, classified or monitored as a distinct legal or statistical category, thereby not providing visibility and support for policy.

Regarding international migration and climate vulnerabilities, Türkiye hosts more than 3 million refugees and migrants, all of whom are seeking international protection. As of 28 August 2025, 2,508,446 Syrians have been granted temporary protection (TP) status.[4] Another group of foreigners are international protection (IP) holders. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), there were 219,000 refugees and asylum seekers in Türkiye as of 2025.[5] Many of those are from climate-vulnerable regions such as Syria, Afghanistan, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Pakistan. While not legally defined as “climate refugees,” many of these individuals originate from countries experiencing climate-induced resource scarcity, droughts, and conflict over environmental collapse. Migrants arriving from these contexts may not specify their movement as “climate-related,” but climate change is often an underlying driver of instability. Despite their exposure to hazards at both origin and destination, international migrants in Türkiye—especially those with irregular status—remain largely excluded from climate adaptation frameworks and resilience policies.

In terms of the legal framework, the Law on Foreigners and International Protection (LFIP, Law No. 6458, 2013)[6] provides an essential legal infrastructure as the main national law regulating Türkiye’s migration legislation, reflecting a shift toward institutional rationalisation, normative clarity, and international engagement in migration governance. However, the LFIP does not provide any recognition or definition regarding the nexus between internal and international migration and climate for Türkiye. Internal climate-induced displacement may increase demand for urban services, and the existing infrastructure remains inadequate. International migrants already living in precarious conditions (e.g., in informal labour or housing) are disproportionately affected by urban heatwaves, floods, and wildfires. Without policy recognition of the climate–migration linkages, Türkiye risks overlooking a growing population exposed to compound vulnerabilities.

Although climate change is increasingly recognised as a driver of human mobility, Türkiye’s primary migration law (the LFIP) does not provide a legal category, definition or protective framework for climate-induced migrants. The LFIP only provides definitions of international protection statuses, such as refugee, conditional refugee, subsidiary protection, etc. However, environmental factors and climate-induced displacement are not explicitly recognised as grounds for protection. As a result, individuals displaced due to slow-onset disasters (drought, desertification, etc.) or sudden-onset events (floods, wildfires, etc.) are not entitled to legal protection under existing categories.[7] This absence leaves those affected by climate change in a state of legal limbo, without formal access to residency, social support, or asylum pathways. At the same time, this regulatory gap reflects a broader issue at the international level, where climate refugees or environmental migrants remain outside the scope of the 1951 Refugee Convention and its domestic adaptations.[8] In addition, Migration-related institutions, such as the Presidency of Migration Management (PMM), primarily focus on managing the integration of migrants and refugees, with limited emphasis on the impacts of climate change. However, there is growing recognition that climate change is a factor driving internal displacement and cross-border movements.

This policy report aims to examine the intersection between climate change and migration in Türkiye, with particular attention to recent legal, institutional, and policy developments, as well as the challenges posed by environmental stressors for both internal and international mobility. The study seeks to identify existing governance gaps, highlight the implications of climate change for migrant and refugee populations, and propose policy recommendations that strengthen resilience and adaptation at both national and local levels.

Methodologically, the report is grounded in a combination of desk research and empirical inquiry. In addition to the systematic review of legal frameworks, strategy documents, and secondary data, the study draws on in-depth interviews conducted between January and June 2025 with representatives from eight state and non-state institutions actively engaged in the fields of migration and climate change. These interviews provide first-hand insights into institutional perspectives, practical challenges, and emerging priorities, complementing the desk-based analysis and ensuring a multi-actor understanding of the climate–migration nexus in Türkiye.

[1] Senior Researcher, Swedish Research Institute in Istanbul, Post-Doc Researcher PHOENIX Project, ela.gokalparas@sri.org.tr

[2] Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. (2011). Türkiye's National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan; Lelandais, G. E. (2016). Drought, Social Inequalities, Adaptation, and Farmers’ Mobility in the Konya Plain of Türkiye. In R. McLeman & F. Gemenne (Eds.), Environmental Migration and Social Inequality (pp. 85–104). Springer; UNCCD. (2016). Türkiye Land Degradation Neutrality National Report (2016-2023). Available at: https://www.unccd.int/sites/default/files/ldn_targets/turkey-ldn-country-report.pdf; World Bank. (2023). Türkiye Climate and Development Report; MGM. (2025). 2024 Yılı İklim Değerlendirmesi Raporu, Available at: https://mgm.gov.tr/FILES/iklim/yillikiklim/2024-iklim-raporu.pdf, p. 42 (Accessed 30 May 2025)

[3] World Bank. (2021). Groundswell Part 2: Acting on Internal Climate Migration. Washington, DC: World Bank. (2023). Key highlights: Country climate and development report for Türkiye. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/turkey/brief/key-highlights-country-climate-and-development-report-for-turkiye  (Accessed 4 September 2025).

[4] PMM. (2025). “Temporary Protection”. Available at: https://en.goc.gov.tr/temporary-protection27 (Accessed 6 September 2025).

[5]UNHCR,  “Türkiye”, 2025. Available at:  https://reporting.unhcr.org/operational/operations/t%C3%BCrkiye#:~:text=T%C3%BCrkiye%20has%20been%20the%20largest,protection%20applicants%20and%20status%2Dholders. (Accessed 2 May 2025).

[6] The Law on Foreigners and International Protection (#6458), Available at:  https://en.goc.gov.tr/kurumlar/en.goc/Ingilizce-kanun/Law-on-Foreigners-and-International-Protection.pdf (Accessed 30 May 2025).

[7] Khagram, S., & Ali, S. (2006). Environment and Security. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour., 14.1-14.17. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.31.042605.134901 (Accessed 2 May 2025).

[8] Ibid.